Estimating Row Material Needs with The Quantitative System for Business Program

Peneliti

Dr. Henny, S.T, M.T Iyan Andriana, S.T., M.T.

Deskripsi/Abstrak

The purpose of this study is to forecast the needs of Clay raw materials with Moving Average or MA and Moving Average with Lenear Trend methods or MAT in time series data group using WinQSB software. In MA and MAT method, an experiment is carried out for moving average period starting from 2 periods to 40 periods in accordance with the range of 41 mounths historical data. Based on the selection of Tracking Signal limitation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error of MAPE, MA method has Tracking Signal of 2.96 and MAPE of 20.94% in 6 monthly moving average period resulting in flat data pattern and MAT method has Tracking Signal of 2.00 and MAPE of 16.19% in 39 monthly moving average period resulting in a data pattern that tends to go up. To get the best results for estimating raw materials in the next 6 months, a comparison is made between two alternative methods. Best result of comparison of two methods is the method with the smallest percentage of errors which is MAT method in 39 monthly moving average period. Thus, companies can use this software and method to facilitate the planning of raw material requirements with smaller risk of error.